Demographic Transition Model reading page 22 in the book

Demographic Transition Model- a four-stage forming of concepts that tracks changes in birth rates and death rates through time as population urbanizes. The four stages in the diagram are preindustrial, transitional, transitional, and industrial. It is a useful tool for keeping information about the differences in birthrates and death rates around the world organized.

Stage 1- characterized by high birthrates and death rates. This leads to a slow rate of natural increase.

Stage 2- death rates fall a lot and birthrates stay high. This makes a rapid rise in the RNI. The decrease in death rates is probably associated with the development of the public health measures and modern medicine.

Stage 3- Lower birthrates. Still low death rates. People were becoming aware of the advantages of smaller families in urban and industrial lives.

Stage 4- Very low RNI because of low birthrates and very low death rates. Today places like the U.S., Japan, and most of Europe are in stage 4.

Most professionals think the demographic transition model is a good predictor of where and when the population growth rates are going to slow and development in the world. Some people think it has too many confusing variables and differences between countries for universal application in the 21st century.